Irish economic outlook upbeat despite Trump concerns, say contractors

Posted on: 13 January 2025

Results from the 2025 Ireland’s Project Economy (IPE) report reveal an optimistic outlook for the Irish economy, with high-skilled independent contractors forecasting improved performance in the year ahead.

The Trinity Business School – Contracting Plus IPE report, based on an annual survey of 1,500 skilled independent contractors, highlights their unique position as early indicators of economic trends due to their involvement in driving key projects across various sectors.

“Independent contractors have proved to be a reliable bellwether for economic performance, as their work and contract pipeline provide early insights into businesses’ plans to expand or contract,” said Professor Andrew Burke, Chair of Business Studies at Trinity Business School and co-author of the report.

Early results from the report indicate that:

· High-skilled contractors predict the Irish economy will perform better in 2025, with confidence index scores across key sectors ranging from +22 to +33.

· Contractors expect the project economy to outperform the broader Irish economy over the next 3 to 5 years, driven by growth in eight major sectors, including technology, pharma, finance, and engineering.

· While most sectors show strong confidence levels, the medical locum sector lags with a confidence index of +4, reflecting a cautious outlook.

· 48% of contractors believe the Trump presidency will have a negative impact on their business sector, with European multinationals expressing more concern than their U.S. counterparts, primarily due to tariff-related fears. This is four times higher than the 12% who expect the Trump to have a positive effect.

Pessimism is particularly pronounced among those working for European multinationals compared to those who mainly contract with US Multinationals, suggesting that concerns are more focused on tariff impacts than the repatriation of U.S. multinational activity back to America.

The not-for-profit and charity sector expressed the highest level of concern, with nearly 69% expecting an adverse effect from Trump’s policies. This likely reflects fears that the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ philosophy could reduce support for global charities and foster a less collaborative, more self-interested mindset globally.

Interestingly, younger independent contractors are slightly less concerned about negative effects from Trump’s presidency than older contractors. However, all age groups show a strong net negative expectation of its impact on their sectors.

Professor Andrew Burke added: “High skilled freelancers are on frontline of innovation-driven economies and so it is encouraging that they are sending back a positive message about the economic outlook for Ireland; especially as most of them are factoring in a negative effect from Trump’s presidency. That said, there is so much uncertainty about how Trump’s presidency will actually manifest itself, that one needs to allow for a greater than usual margin for error in the forecasts from this report.”

Professor Na Fu, Associate Professor of Human Resource Management at Trinity Business School and co-author of the report, remarked: "As high-skilled independent contractors continue to shape Ireland's innovation landscape, their confidence reflects the dynamic and resilient nature of our economy. These professionals bring specialised expertise and agile talent solutions to leading companies in sectors like technology, pharma, and finance. From a HR perspective, they are a critical component of workforce strategies, enabling organisations to bridge skill gaps, drive innovation, and deliver transformative projects that power economic growth and sustainability."

Jimmy Sheehan, Managing Director of Contracting PLUS, added: "The confidence expressed by independent contractors clearly reflects the resilience and innovation at the core of our industry. Despite global uncertainties, it’s encouraging to see such strong optimism for growth within the Project Economy."

More Info:

These findings are part of an early data release from the 2025 Irish Project Economy Report, set to be published in late spring. The independent research conducted in December 2024 by Professors Andrew Burke and Na Fu of Trinity Business School and sponsored by Contracting PLUS. It draws on survey data from 1,500 participants across eight key sectors, providing valuable insights into economic trends and the role of the project economy in driving growth.

Now in its fifth consecutive year, this unique study continues to highlight the economic power of Ireland’s the Project Economy.

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