Trinity's Dept of Political Science collaborates on national exit poll

Posted on: 29 November 2024

The Department of Political Science is collaborating with RTÉ, TG4 and The Irish Times on an exit poll for general election 2024.

Carried out by Ipsos B&A, the exit poll will give the first clear indication of the outcome of the election.

The exit poll will be based on some 5,000 interviews conducted with voters immediately after voting in the 43 constituencies across the country. The interviews are very short, self-administered and conducted in private to mimic the voting experience, as closely as possible. 

Led by Professor Gail McElroy, Department of Political researchers have been involved in the questionnaire design, in collaboration with colleagues at TG4, RTÉ and the Irish Times.

The first findings of the exit poll will be released at 10pm on Friday night and will focus on first preference votes. This will provide early indications of the level of support for the major political parties and independents, as a group, contesting the election.

Over the weekend more detailed results will be released. These will include what were the most important issues for voters as they cast their vote and attitudinal and policy questions. This will provide a much more detailed picture of the mood and profile of the electorate.

Gail McElroy, Professor in Political Science, School of Social Sciences and Philosophy, explained:

“The release of the exit poll results, as the polling stations close at 10pm, is a huge, much anticipated, moment for campaign workers, candidates and party leaders alike but also for all of us, amateurs and professionals, who are passionate about elections. This will be one of the most watched TV events of the year.

“This moment of excitement and engagement aside, exit polls have much to offer. Unlike opinion polls, which measure voting intentions before people vote, exit polls capture actual voting behaviour, typically just minutes after individuals cast their ballots. As a result, they provide high-quality, real-time data that political scientists use to better understand voters.

“Moreover, exit polls generally achieve much higher response rates than opinion polls and, therefore, require little to no adjustment or weighting. While they tend to ask only a small number of questions—usually answered in under a minute—exit polls remain a crucial tool for analysing the electorate, complementing other resources like the National Election and Democracy Study and media-conducted opinion polls. Join us on Friday evening for the big reveal!”

• Tags:
• Research
• Society