A team of economists and civil engineers at Trinity College Dublin is set to develop new forecasting tools to predict the future composition of private vehicle fleets in Ireland. This innovative project, known as RATE, aims to provide crucial insights into car purchasing preferences and their impact on the country's transition to cleaner, more sustainable vehicles.

Led by Prof. Eleanor Denny from the Department of Economics and Prof. Brian Caulfield from Civil Engineering, the RATE project has secured funding from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland’s research and development programme. The project will conduct a nationwide survey examining how factors like fuel type, vehicle size, safety, and cost influence consumer choices. The findings will help create advanced car stock models for Ireland, offering a clearer picture of future trends in vehicle ownership.

Focus on Electric Vehicles and Emissions Reduction

The RATE project will play a key role in estimating the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Irish market, assessing the potential emissions reductions from increased EV adoption. Additionally, the research will model changes in air quality by tracking pollutants such as particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide.

Prof. Denny expressed her enthusiasm for the interdisciplinary nature of the project, noting its importance for future transport policy:

"This is a hugely exciting project that brings together Behavioural Economics and Engineering to shape the future of Ireland's private vehicle landscape. It will equip policymakers with the necessary tools to make informed, evidence-based decisions about Ireland's transport systems."

She also highlighted the importance of accurate data in modelling emissions:

"In 2022, private cars accounted for 69% of all trips in Ireland, making it essential to have a precise model for car stock. Our project will bridge the gap by integrating historical data with real purchasing preferences, ensuring our car stock model is as reliable as possible."

Supporting Climate Action Goals

Prof. Caulfield emphasized the project's role in supporting Ireland's 2023 Climate Action Plan, which seeks to reduce transport emissions by 50% from 2018 levels.

"The plan's ‘Avoid-Shift-Improve’ strategy includes selling 845,000 private electric cars, contributing to a reduction of 4.74 MtCO2eq — the largest intervention in the transport sector. To meet these ambitious targets, it’s essential to have the latest tools to track the success of these measures and forecast future trends."

The RATE project will provide a state-of-the-art predictive model for future car types in Ireland. This model will allow policymakers to assess the impact of changing costs and tax policies on consumer behaviour and evaluate potential emissions reduction strategies.