Our staff publish research in reputable and established journals from around the world. Here is a recent selection of such papers.
"Audiovisual generative AI and conflict resolution: trends, threats and mitigation strategies"
Witness | September 2024
This report examines how synthetic media, powered by generative AI, could impact conflict and peace efforts, especially over the next 2-3 years. As AI-generated content becomes more realistic and harder to detect, malicious actors may use it to spread disinformation, exploit public confusion, and destabilize global security. The report outlines potential risks like fake content targeting diplomats, automated propaganda, and disinformation networks. It provides recommendations for governments, NGOs, and institutions to invest in detection technologies, establish international standards, and promote AI literacy. Central to these efforts is ensuring that communities affected by conflict are prioritized and protected.
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"Parties under Pressure: The Politics of Factions and Party Adaptation"
The University of Chicago Press | August 2024
Established political parties worldwide are under pressure from left and right-wing insurgents, changing media landscapes, and new policy challenges. Some parties adapt successfully to these changes, while others struggle, risking decline and creating opportunities for radical parties that threaten liberal democracy. Parties under Pressure examines why certain parties, particularly Christian democratic ones in Western Europe, manage to adapt while others do not. This book from Matthias Dilling emphasizes that moderate levels of factionalism can aid adaptation by promoting new ideas, based on extensive research in Germany, Italy, and Austria, among other countries. This comparative-historical study offers insights into the varying success of parties in reforming over the past 75 years.
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"Going negative when spoiled for choice? Destabilizing and boomerang effects of negative political messaging in multiparty systems with multimember districts"
Political Research Exchange | August 2024
Electoral theories often link the benefits of negative campaigning to two-party systems, where one party's gain is another's loss. However, negative campaigning is also common in multiparty systems, despite unclear advantages. This study asks whether negative messaging helps attackers in multiparty systems with multimember districts or backfires on the sender. The literature suggests these effects are complex and unpredictable. Using a survey experiment based on Facebook political messages in Ireland, where the single transferable vote increases uncertainty, the study finds that negative messaging can trigger both the intended impact and a backlash, resulting in no clear overall effect.
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"Lobbying regulation in comparative context and reflections on the future"
Handbook on Lobbying and Public Policy | 2024
PhD student Jack O'Neill and Professor Raj Chari contributed a chapter on lobbying regulation interests to this handbook. The book explores theories of lobbying, lobbying across the policy cycle, business and societal actors' political strategies, varieties of lobbying activity across countries and international organisations, and compiles wide range of highly relevant case studies utilising diverse research methods and theoretical models. Compiling a wide range of highly relevant case studies and deploying diverse research methods and theoretical models, the Handbook on Lobbying and Public Policy will prove vital reading to students and scholars of political science, public policy, sociology, and international and global studies.
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"Political responsiveness and centralized religious leaders: lessons from the Catholic Church"
Politics and Religion | May 2024
Do centralized leaders of religious organizations respond to their followers' political preferences even without strong accountability mechanisms like elections? It is argued that they do, as they rely on loyal members for legitimacy and support. To test this theory, over 10,000 papal statements were analyzed, revealing that the Pope responds to Catholics' political concerns. Surveys conducted in Brazil and Mexico found that Catholics increase their trust and engagement with the Church when papal messages reflect their concerns, depending on their commitment to the Church and political alignment. This suggests that centralized religious leaders maintain support by addressing followers' political interests.
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"CompLaw: A Coding Protocol and Database for the Comparative Study of Judicial Review"
Journal of Law and Courts | May 2024
A growing body of theory shows how constitutional review impacts judicial decisions, legislative actions, and the constitutionality of laws and executive decisions. However, testing these ideas has been difficult due to a lack of a standard way to code court decisions. To address this, the authors introduce a coding system and database (CompLaw) covering rulings from 42 constitutional courts. Using this database, they explore how the timing of reviews affects rulings of unconstitutionality. Their analysis of the French Constitutional Council and other courts highlights the benefits of the CompLaw system for studying judicial review.
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